Emerging Opportunities in the Russian Consumer Finance Market ...

Price: $ 1950 (Single User License)?

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Synopsis
The report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights into the Russian consumer finance market, including:

Current and forecast values for the Russian consumer finance market
Comprehensive analysis of the industrys market attractiveness and key trends and drivers supporting the growth of the consumer finance market in Russia
Detailed analysis of the marketing strategies adopted by companies in Russia for selling consumer loans?
Detailed analysis of the challenges affecting the Russian consumer finance market
The competitive landscape in the Russian consumer finance market
Company profiles of the major banks in the Russian consumer finance market

Summary
The Russian consumer finance market declined in 2009 but managed to recover strongly in 2010 and 2011. The recovery is primarily attributed to the stabilization of interest rates in consumer lending. The consumer finance market recorded a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.46% during the review period (20072011). It is projected to retain a high CAGR of 19.85% over the forecast period (20122016). The strong growth will be driven by the countrys improving macroeconomic fundamentals and rising domestic demand for consumer finance products. Personal loans is the largest category in the Russian consumer finance market. It recorded a CAGR of 23.79% during the review period. Russias rising employment levels are expected to generate more demand for personal loans in the country. The improving employment conditions in the country will encourage Russians to increase their personal consumption expenditure, increasing the demand for personal loans. Most Russians take out personal loans to purchase furniture, large household appliances and mobile phones.Scope

This report provides an extensive analysis on the consumer finance market in Russia
It details historical values for the consumer finance market in Russia for 20072011, along with forecast figures for 20122016
The report provides a detailed analysis on key trends, drivers and challenges in the consumer finance market in Russia
It outlines the current regulatory framework in the industry
It provides detail on the competitive landscape in the Russian consumer finance market
It details the marketing strategies adopted by various companies

Reasons To Buy

Make strategic business decisions using historic and forecast market data related to the Russian consumer finance market
Understand the key market trends and growth opportunities in the Russian consumer finance market
Assess the competitive dynamics in the Russian consumer finance market
Gain insights into the marketing strategies adopted by companies to sell consumer finance products
Gain insights into key regulations governing the consumer finance market in Russia

Key Highlights

The Russian consumer finance market recorded a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.46% during the review period (20072011). It is projected to retain a high CAGR of 19.85% over the forecast period (20122016)
Personal loans is the largest category in the Russian consumer finance market, accounting for 49.3% of the total consumer finance market in 2011
Personal loans was also the fastest-growing category in the Russian consumer finance market during the review period with a CAGR of 23.79%?
State-owned Sberbank is the leader in the Russian retail lending market
The mortgage lending market in 2011 in Russia made significant progress, with demand principally driven by the economy-class segment

Original Post Emerging Opportunities in the Russian Consumer Finance Market: Market Size, Strategies, Products and Competitive Landscape source Researchmoz Market Research
Banking Reports

Source: http://www.findmarketresearch.org/emerging-opportunities-in-the-russian-consumer-finance-market-market-size-strategies-products-and-competitive-landscape-10425.php

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Scrapbooking ... Art? Storytelling? Preservation?

For some reason today I have been thinking about why I scrapbook. What is the purpose for me?

I think back in the day when Scrapbooking hit the popular "thing to do" section of the crafting world it was all about preserving your precious photographs for generations to come. That was back in the good ol' days when we had cameras with negatives and there was no such thing as printing photos at home.

Now days, in the world of digital photography, ?it seems to have become much more a form of art. Where pages have become amazingly detailed with an amazing amount of product and?embellishments?attached. With very little if any focus on the photograph or story behind it.

I came to the conclusion that scrapbooking has become for me, all about storytelling. It has never been about preserving my photos for my Great great great great Grandchildren. ?It is something that me and my children can look back on and remember the good times we had as a family.?Journaling?on my pages is very important for me. It says the things the photos don't say. How we were feeling, what the weather was like, any background story. I have always been a diary/journal writer for as long as I can remember, so for me that part is very important. ?And of course it is a form of art. Because of course we want the page to look pretty!! (Or cool, depending on gender hehehe) And there is a feeling of satisfaction and?accomplishment?in creating things. Call it therapy, or time out. I use my scrapbooking time as a time to reflect too.
Of course Scrapbooking is a personal thing, so I am going to appoligise in advance if I upset or offend anyone with this post. That is definitely NOT my intention. I am expressing MY opinion on MY thoughts. You are welcome to comment with your thoughts too.

Now for me Scrapbooking focuses on the photos. But have we gone too far into Art with our scrapbooking and are we beginning to lose the focus? ?I see scrapbook pages where you have to search for the photo. I see pages where the photo is covered up with so much product you can hardly see it. And I see page after page with no?journaling?at all.


I am beginning to think, should these people be calling themselves scrapbookers any more? Should they instead be calling themselves artists? Don't get me wrong the pages I see are stunningly beautiful (most of the time!) but is it really scrapbooking any more, or is it just beautiful artworks? Or has the focus of scrapbooking changed so dramatically that so long as it has a photograph on it you can call it scrapping?

I'm certainly not saying this is a bad thing. But lately, especially since opening my shop, I have been thinking about what is popular in the world of scrapping. Do I need to stock this if it is popular even if I don't like it? Can I sell a product I wouldn't use myself, or can't stand the sight of? ?When I do classes can I make things that are the 'in' thing to do but isn't my style? So many things to consider and wonder about.


So what are your thoughts? What is the reason YOU scrapbook? What does it mean to YOU?
I would love to hear what you think.

Source: http://tracypscrapheap.blogspot.com/2012/09/scrapbooking-art-storytelling.html

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Links to this post - Wikaniko Eco-friendly Shop & Business Opportunity


Wikaniko International Business Opportunity....

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An extraordinary opportunity has recently been created for anyone outside of mainland UK to build a Wikaniko business in the UK, and attract an income from building a worldwide business. Furthermore, should you be successful, there is an opportunity for you to become a Master Distributor in your country, and open a distribution centre there.

Please read the following carefully:

You may register as a distributor anywhere in the world, and pay 79.00 GBP via paypal.


This gives you an online eco supermarket for promotion in the UK. Deliveries of products are restricted to the UK (however, see footnote below)
You may also attract distributors who are based in the UK and who wish to build a business there.
You may also attract distributors in the country that you reside in, who wish to build a UK business.


When you achieve 1000 active distributors specifically in your country, you may apply to open a distribution centre there. Provided the laws that you abide by allow MLM or network marketing operations in your country, there would be no reason to prevent you from building a business in your own country ? and indeed, any country in the world.


This is a truly extraordinary opportunity for any serious and capable business builders.


Footnote:
We may, under certain circumstances, and for certain countries, ship goods internationally, provided the order is of a sufficient size and sterling amount. This will be discussed individually with registered active International distributors.


Click Here to Register as an International Distributor : Sponsor ID 1002850


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Source: http://richardahudson.blogspot.com/2012/09/wikaniko-international-business.html

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Fall's must-see political TV: Obama-Romney debates

The crowd cheers as President Barack Obama speaks at a campaign event at University of Iowa, Friday, Sept. 7, 2012, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

The crowd cheers as President Barack Obama speaks at a campaign event at University of Iowa, Friday, Sept. 7, 2012, in Iowa City, Iowa. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney holds up a license plate given to him by a supporter in the crowd during a campaign rally on Friday, Sept. 7, 2012 in Nashua, N.H. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

(AP) ? Finally, the fall season offers the matchup sure to attract the biggest audience of the campaign: President Barack Obama goes one-on-one with Republican rival Mitt Romney in three prime-time debates.

Typically the top political draw in the final sprint to Election Day, the debates assume outsized importance this year with the race a dead heat. The two polished candidates will have their sound bites and rhetoric down cold so any slip or inadvertent move ? like President George H.W. Bush's exasperated glance at his watch or Democrat Al Gore's repeated sighing ? could roil the campaign for days and linger in voters' mind until Nov. 6.

No wonder Romney spent days this past week holed up at the Vermont estate of former Massachusetts Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey for debate practice sessions with Ohio Sen. Rob Portman, who played the role of Obama. The president, for his part, has had one practice session with Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the Democrats' stand-in for Romney, and is certain to have several more before the first debate Oct. 3 in Denver.

The second debate, a town hall-style session, is Oct. 16 in Hempstead, N.Y. The final debate, on foreign policy, is Oct. 22 in Boca Raton, Fla. GOP running mate Paul Ryan and Vice President Joe Biden have one debate, Oct. 11 in Danville, Ky.

Incumbents usually are at a disadvantage, defending a record against a challenger critiquing four years of work. Obama will be trying to avoid the fate of Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, who turned in flat debate performances in their first encounters with rivals. In the end, though, it didn't hurt either one as they both won re-election.

"Debating is a muscle that doesn't get used very often," said Alan Schroeder, a journalism professor at Northeastern University and the author of "Presidential Debates: Forty Years of High-Risk TV." ''Mitt Romney is better toned because he came off 20-plus primary debates. President Obama has not been on a debate stage in four years."

Debates are unique, unlike the highly choreographed campaign event or stump speech marked by over-the-top rhetoric. Schroeder said debates require a different dynamic ? candidates need to be respectful, differing in opinion but avoiding any impression that it's personal.

"In 2008, the first debate between Barack Obama and John McCain, one of the takeaways was McCain did not make eye contact with Obama," Schroeder said. "That came off as rude, disrespectful."

Part of the practice sessions is figuring out when to be aggressive and how to demonstrate leadership. It's also honing the lines from months of campaign speeches as the candidates get their final opportunities to speak directly to tens of millions of voters.

In the first debate, on domestic policy, Romney and Obama will be armed with competing numbers and visions.

"We will not surrender our dreams to the failures of this president," Romney told an audience in Bedford, N.H., last December. Expect the Republican to point to 23 million Americans out of work or underemployed, a national debt now at $16 trillion and three years of an unemployment rate above 8 percent.

In a speech in April, Romney sketched out the Republican vision of smaller government, less regulation and a greater role for business.

"Free enterprise has done more to lift people out of poverty, to help build a strong middle class, to help educate our kids, to make our lives better, than all of the government programs put together," Romney told a meeting of the Newspaper Association of America.

Expect Obama to counter that more than 4.6 million jobs have been created since he took office after recession-driven job losses approaching 800,000 a month under Bush. In his bid to boost the middle class, the president will argue that he's reduced the typical family's federal tax burden by $3,600. And he will talk about shared responsibility and a role for government.

"As citizens, we understand that America is not about what can be done for us. It's about what can be done by us, together, through the hard and frustrating but necessary work of self-government," Obama said in his convention speech.

Both will be pressed for specifics on their job creation claims. Romney promises 12 million new jobs; Obama the creation of 1 million manufacturing jobs. Neither has said how he would make those jobs happen.

The candidates are diametrically apart on health care, Medicare, gay marriage, immigration and abortion rights ? all potential issues.

The second debate on Oct. 16 will cover domestic and foreign policy with questions from a group of undecided voters selected by the Gallup Organization, a format that could elicit the unusual and the memorable.

It was at a 1992 town hall debate involving President George H.W. Bush, Democrat Bill Clinton and independent Ross Perot in which the Republican was caught looking at this watch. His reaction came as an audience member was talking about how much the deep recession had personally affected him. Bush, who lost that election, later said that he was thinking: "Only 10 more minutes of this crap."

The final debate Oct. 22 focuses on foreign policy, an area in which Obama has received high marks from Americans in opinion polls. The president will offer a spirited defense of his aggressive record in pursuing al-Qaida, the killing of Osama bin Laden and the collapse of Moammar Gadhafi's regime in Libya.

As for his rival, Obama said in his convention speech that Romney and Ryan are neophytes. "In a world of new threats and new challenges, you can choose leadership that has been tested and proven," the president insisted in arguing for his candidacy.

Obama said Romney and Ryan "are new to foreign policy, but from all that we've seen and heard, they want to take us back to an era of blustering and blundering that cost America so dearly."

Romney has argued that Obama has "thrown Israel under a bus" and has failed to show resolve in challenging Iran and its suspected nuclear weapons program. He likely will talk about his close friendship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as he did in a speech to American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference in March.

"In a Romney administration, there will be no gap between our nations or between our leaders," Romney told the gathering.

Expect Romney to complain about Obama cuts in projected military spending even though congressional Republicans, including his running mate Ryan, voted for them last year.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/89ae8247abe8493fae24405546e9a1aa/Article_2012-09-08-Campaign-The%20Debates/id-e5e08506b2d14213a4944f7da4d30c01

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Source: http://ppt-search.blogspot.com/2012/09/indien-pres-automotive-practice.html

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Merkel looks for deal to keep Greece in euro zone: magazine

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Source: http://news.yahoo.com/merkel-looks-deal-keep-greece-euro-zone-magazine-170200805.html

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Nigerian airline collapses as industry struggles

LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) ? Almost half the aircraft had been pulled out of service at Air Nigeria, this West African nation's second-largest airline, and its staff hadn't received a paycheck in four months when its top executive summarily fired nearly all of its employees for "dishonesty."

"Corporations are like individuals, who naturally will get sick," Air Nigeria chairman Jimoh Ibrahim was quoted as saying. "The usual thing to do is to admit them in hospitals, either for corporate surgery or for treatment, as the case may be."

The collapse and the mass firing of about 800 workers at Air Nigeria comes as only four domestic airlines are currently flying in Nigeria, down from nine flying at the start of this year. The dramatic decrease highlights the current turmoil of the nation's troubled aviation sector.

While the federal government insists it conducts strict maintenance and financial audits of airlines, the financial mess left behind after Air Nigeria's shutdown and a June crash by another carrier that killed more than 160 people has left many Nigerians leery of flying and distrustful of official safety promises.

"I think that if in the future, if anybody's coming into this business, I think the government needs to put in a particular panel to check that person's mental state, first of all, and the financial records need to be checked so we can know if this person can even do the job," said Isaac Balami, president of Nigeria's National Association of Aircrafts Pilots and Engineers. "We've seen people that can't even manage an ordinary business. ... Aviation is not for a lazy man or somebody who doesn't know what he's doing."

Angered by their firing, more than 60 former Air Nigeria employees protested Friday outside of the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority and later marched past a domestic wing of Lagos' Murtala Muhammed International Airport. Former employees described a dysfunctional environment where bosses removed telephone lines and called Internet access and using an elevator to reach their high-rise office "a luxury."

Staff last received a paycheck in April and had been sitting at home for weeks for a call to return to work. At one point, employees also were forced to sign "loyalty oaths" to swear their allegiance to the company and promise not to be union members, workers said. Yet the company continued to collapse, even after it received money from a federal bailout fund, employees said.

"If they want to steal Nigerian money, don't use our hands or our heads to steal it," said an employee who asked only to be identified by her first name Barbara, out of hopes she might still receive the rest of her salary. "Just steal it and deal with your conscience."

Financial troubles have trailed Air Nigeria, a one-time darling of the country when billionaire Richard Branson helped create it as Virgin Nigeria in 2005. Branson pulled out of the airline and in 2010 Ibrahim took it over and renamed it.

Ibrahim, who also directs a major hotel chain, an insurance firm and an oil company, has strong ties to the country's political elite, as do many in business in the nation. But the engineers' strike earlier this year saw workers claim the company's finances stopped it from properly servicing its fleet. A top former company official also referred to airline's aircraft as "flying coffins" in local media reports.

The workers presented a letter outlining their complaints to officials at the civil aviation authority. Samuel Ogbogoro, a spokesman for Air Nigeria, did not respond to a request for comment Friday over the employees' allegations. The company has said, however, it hopes to reopen in 12 months, though it remains unclear how it will do that with the debts employees say it faces.

Experts believe Air Nigeria is not a unique case among airlines in Nigeria, however. Jet fuel purchases often must be made with cash in the country. Other executives with ties to government officials have floated airlines in the past.

Meanwhile, the country has suffered a series of fatal plane crashes over the last decades, with authorities never offering clear explanations for why the disasters happened.

In June, a Dana Air MD-83 crashed about five miles north of Lagos' airport, killing 153 onboard and 10 people on the ground. While an initial report suggests both engines failed on the flight, officials haven't explained why that happened, though they cleared the airline to fly again this week.

Meanwhile, other airlines appear to be grounded over financial concerns and other matters, leaving only four carriers flying and unable to meet the nation's growing demand for flights. That could put further pressure on an industry where corners have been cut in the past and pilots feel pressure to fly no matter what.

"The aviation industry is all about efficiencies, speed and accuracy," Balami said. "Can you imagine a pilot ... going through financial difficulties (and) he or she can't pay their bills and you expect them to concentrate?"

___

Jon Gambrell can be reached at www.twitter.com/jongambrellAP.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/nigerian-airline-collapses-industry-struggles-140816435--finance.html

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Measuring glucose without needle pricks

ScienceDaily (Sep. 7, 2012) ? Pricking a finger everyday is just part of everyday life for many diabetes patients. A non-invasive measurement approach could release them from the constant pain of pin pricks. The linchpin is a biosensor engineered by Fraunhofer researchers: A tiny chip combines measurement and digital analysis -- and can be radioed to a mobile device.

Sticking yourself in the finger day after day: For many diabetics, this means of checking blood glucose is an everyday part of life. Especially for patients with Type-1 diabetes, who always have to keep a close eye on their levels, since their bodies are incapable of producing the insulin to break down the glucose in the blood. Several times a day, they have to place a tiny drop of blood on a test strip. It is the only way they can ascertain the blood glucose value, so they can inject the correct amount of insulin needed. And this pricking is not only a burdensome: it may also cause inflammation or cornification of the skin. And for pain-sensitive patients, the procedure is agony.

The daily sticking of the finger may soon become a thing of the past, thanks to a diagnostic system with Fraunhofer technology built-in. The underlying concept is a biosensor that is located on the patient's body. It is also able to measure glucose levels continuously using tissue fluids other than blood, such as in sweat or tears. The patient could dispense with the constant needle pricks. In the past, such bioelectric sensors were too big, too imprecise and consumed too much power. Researchers at the Fraunhofer Institute for Microelectronic Circuits and Systems IMS in Duisburg have recently achieved a major breakthrough: They have developed a biosensor in nano-form that circumvents these hurdles.

Diagnostic system in miniature

The principle of measurement involves an electrochemical reaction that is activated with the aid of an enzyme. Glucose oxidase converts glucose into hydrogen peroxide (H2O2) and other chemicals whose concentration can be measured with a potentiostat. This measurement is used for calculating the glucose level. The special feature of this biosensor: the chip, measuring just 0.5 x 2.0 millimeters, can fit more than just the nanopotentiostat itself. Indeed, Fraunhofer researchers have attached the entire diagnostic system to it. "It even has an integrated analog digital converter that converts the electrochemical signals into digital data," explains Tom Zimmermann, business unit manager at IMS. The biosensor transmits the data via a wireless interface, for example to a mobile receiver. Thus, the patient can keep a steady eye on his or her glucose level. "In the past, you used to need a circuit board the size of a half-sheet of paper," says Zimmermann. "And you also had to have a driver. But even these things are no longer necessary with our new sensor."

Durable biosensor

The minimal size is not the only thing that provides a substantial advantage over previous biosensors of this type. In addition, the sensor consumes substantially less power. Earlier systems required about 500 microamperes at five volts; now, it is less than 100 microamperes. That increases the durability of the system -- allowing the patient to wear the sensor for weeks, or even months. The use of a passive system makes this durability possible. The sensor is able to send and receive data packages, but it can also be supplied with power through radio frequency.

The glucose sensor was engineered by the researchers at Noviosens, a Dutch medical technology firm. Since it can be manufactured so cost-effectively, it is best suited for mass production. These non-invasive measuring devices for monitoring blood glucose levels may become the basis for a particularly useful further development in the future: The biochip could control an implanted miniature pump that, based on the glucose value measured, indicates the precise amount of insulin to administer. That way, diabetes patients could say goodbye to incessant needle-pricks forever.

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Story Source:

The above story is reprinted from materials provided by Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft.

Note: Materials may be edited for content and length. For further information, please contact the source cited above.


Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: This article is not intended to provide medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. Views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/~3/zWToDieuR0I/120907082023.htm

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Japan utility: No money to develop renewables

Tokyo Electric Power Co., President Naomi Hirose listens during an interview with The Associated Press in Tokyo, Thursday, Sept. 6, 2012. The head of Japan's utility that owns the tsunami-hit Fukushima nuclear power plant said his company has no money to develop alternative energy even as the government moves to reduce nuclear energy following the crisis. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

Tokyo Electric Power Co., President Naomi Hirose listens during an interview with The Associated Press in Tokyo, Thursday, Sept. 6, 2012. The head of Japan's utility that owns the tsunami-hit Fukushima nuclear power plant said his company has no money to develop alternative energy even as the government moves to reduce nuclear energy following the crisis. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

Tokyo Electric Power Co., President Naomi Hirose speaks during an interview with The Associated Press in Tokyo, Thursday, Sept. 6, 2012. The head of Japan's utility that owns the tsunami-hit Fukushima nuclear power plant said his company has no money to develop alternative energy even as the government moves to reduce nuclear energy following the crisis. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

(AP) ? The head of the Japanese utility that owns the tsunami-hit Fukushima nuclear power plant says last year's meltdowns sapped away money it might have used to switch to alternative energy, making it all the more important for the company to stick with nuclear.

Naomi Hirose, president of Tokyo Electric Power Co., said Thursday it is "quite troubling" that the government, responding to public opinion, is moving toward eliminating nuclear power, but he said TEPCO would follow whatever energy policy Japan adopts.

The March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami wiped out the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant and caused extensive radioactive meltdowns that took months to control and will take decades to clean up. It was the world's worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl.

TEPCO was saddled with huge compensation and cleanup costs after the nuclear crisis. The company was nationalized in July after receiving a trillion yen ($12.8 billion) public bailout.

The company had attempted some diversification of its energy mix before the tsunami. TEPCO built three mega-solar power plants and more than a dozen windmills with its affiliate, Eurus Energy Holdings Corp.

But the company's difficult financial picture following the crisis means it doesn't have the money to invest in renewable energy, Hirose told The Associated Press at TEPCO headquarters in Tokyo.

"We tried to develop those renewable powers, but unfortunately after 3/11 we do not have much money and we probably cannot spend as much money to build renewable energy," he said.

Following last year's disaster, the government is finalizing a new energy policy to reduce or eliminate nuclear power. Surveys show the Japanese public overwhelmingly supports a complete phase-out of nuclear energy.

Before the accident, Japan relied on nuclear power for one-third of electricity needs and was planning to increase that to 50 percent by 2030. Since then, all of Japan's 50 reactors have been shut down for routine tests, and in the face of strong public opposition, only two have been restarted.

"Honestly, a change of policy from 50 percent (nuclear dependency) to zero is quite troubling," he said. But he added that TEPCO will follow any energy mix the government decides as part of its energy policy.

He said the impact on the company "could be very big" if the government sets a major nuclear phase-out target. He said that would force TEPCO to make significant changes in policy and management.

Hirose, 59, assumed the top post at the struggling company in June with the task of turning it around. A resumption of TEPCO's idled reactors in northern Japan would help, but gaining local support for that would be difficult, he acknowledged.

"It is true that in order to be in healthy financial condition, nuclear power is helpful," he said, referring to its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant in Niigata, northern Japan, which has seven reactors idled for inspections. "But we do not have any specific schedule for a restart."

Hirose said it is preferable to have diverse energy sources, including nuclear energy, "not just for energy security but also for the price."

Hirose vowed to fully assess the damage and cause of the nuclear crisis at Fukushima.

Multiple investigations have blamed a cozy relationship between government and nuclear industry for safety lapses that allowed the meltdowns to happen. One report called the disaster "man-made."

The Fukushima plant has largely been stabilized but decommissioning it entirely will take decades since the cleanup of its badly melted reactors requires unprecedented work, research and development of technology.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2012-09-06-Japan-Nuclear/id-45757a0923314f50936404b37bb7147e

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'I knew it all along, didn't I?' - Understanding hindsight bias

Friday, September 7, 2012

The fourth-quarter comeback to win the game. The tumor that appeared on a second scan. The guy in accounting who was secretly embezzling company funds. The situation may be different each time, but we hear ourselves say it over and over again: "I knew it all along."

The problem is that too often we actually didn't know it all along, we only feel as though we did. The phenomenon, which researchers refer to as "hindsight bias," is one of the most widely studied decision traps and has been documented in various domains, including medical diagnoses, accounting and auditing decisions, athletic competition, and political strategy.

In a new article in the September 2012 issue of Perspectives on Psychological Science, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, psychological scientists Neal Roese of the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University and Kathleen Vohs of the Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota review the existing research on hindsight bias, exploring the various factors that make us so susceptible to the phenomenon and identifying a few ways we might be able to combat it. This article is the first overview to draw insights together from across different disciplines.

Roese and Vohs propose that there are three levels of hindsight bias that stack on top of each other, from basic memory processes up to higher-level inference and belief. The first level of hindsight bias, memory distortion, involves misremembering an earlier opinion or judgment ("I said it would happen"). The second level, inevitability, centers on our belief that the event was inevitable ("It had to happen"). And the third level, foreseeability, involves the belief that we personally could have foreseen the event ("I knew it would happen").

The researchers argue that certain factors fuel our tendency toward hindsight bias. Research shows that we selectively recall information that confirms what we know to be true and we try to create a narrative that makes sense out of the information we have. When this narrative is easy to generate, we interpret that to mean that the outcome must have been foreseeable. Furthermore, research suggests that we have a need for closure that motivates us to see the world as orderly and predictable and to do whatever we can to promote a positive view of ourselves.

Ultimately, hindsight bias matters because it gets in the way of learning from our experiences.

"If you feel like you knew it all along, it means you won't stop to examine why something really happened," observes Roese. "It's often hard to convince seasoned decision makers that they might fall prey to hindsight bias."

Hindsight bias can also make us overconfident in how certain we are about our own judgments. Research has shown, for example, that overconfident entrepreneurs are more likely to take on risky, ill-informed ventures that fail to produce a significant return on investment.

While our inclination to believe that we "knew it all along" is often harmless, it can have important consequences for the legal system, especially in cases of negligence, product liability, and medical malpractice. Studies have shown, for example, that hindsight bias routinely afflicts judgments about a defendant's past conduct.

And technology may make matters worse. "Paradoxically, the technology that provides us with simplified ways of understanding complex patterns ? from financial modeling of mortgage foreclosures to tracking the flow of communications among terrorist networks ? may actually increase hindsight bias," says Roese.

So what, if anything, can we do about it?

Roese and Vohs suggest that considering the opposite may be an effective way to get around our cognitive fault, at least in some cases. When we are encouraged to consider and explain how outcomes that didn't happen could have happened, we counteract our usual inclination to throw out information that doesn't fit with our narrative. As a result, we may be able to reach a more nuanced perspective of the causal chain of events.

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Association for Psychological Science: http://www.psychologicalscience.org

Thanks to Association for Psychological Science for this article.

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